Post by account_disabled on Dec 14, 2017 9:21:31 GMT
Hi Everyone,
I've finally got the hang of reading the market, I've found my edge!! My discipline when entering and exiting the market is great. My strike rate is high, around 80-85%. My only problem is the few races I lose are enough to wipe out my profit on the whole days racing.
My problem is staking based on the volatility of the current market and or race type.
I'm aware that novices, maidens etc are pretty volatile and handicaps are less volatile. However, I've come across maidens that barely move and handicaps that swing massively. I'm not really clued up on horse racing as a sport, but I'm getting there.
I always adjust my stake depending on price, but I also like to adjust my stake based on market volatility. I'll use smaller stakes on more volatile markets so I have more room for the market to move against me and not lose a huge amount if it doesn't look like it will return (risk reward). However, I get caught out sometimes with a big move thinking the market is a safer market.
How I work out my staking thus far is to predefine how much I'm willing to lose, then to judge how far the market could move against me momentarily before behaving how I predicted. so eg £10 risk over 5 ticks would be £2 a tick.
what methods/rules do you use to judge your stakes and market volatility?
As I'm writing this I'm starting to think more logically and almost answering my own question but my thinking is these factors play a role...
1) form.
are handicaps with a lower rating more volatile?
maidens that already have some races ran are less volatile than maidens running for the 1st time?
dose age play a role?
2) Volume
how much has been matched 10 mins- 5mins before the off?
how much liquidity in the book?
fill rate?
3)graph/range
how much has it moved previously?
what range has it traded in?
and what volume has traded in that range?
so to conclude, how do you judge the volatility of the race? are there different aspects of maidens and handicaps that make them more or less volatile?
thanks
I didn't find the right solution from the internet.
References:
www.betangel.com/forum/viewtopic.php?t=14885
Business Whiteboard Animation Video
I've finally got the hang of reading the market, I've found my edge!! My discipline when entering and exiting the market is great. My strike rate is high, around 80-85%. My only problem is the few races I lose are enough to wipe out my profit on the whole days racing.
My problem is staking based on the volatility of the current market and or race type.
I'm aware that novices, maidens etc are pretty volatile and handicaps are less volatile. However, I've come across maidens that barely move and handicaps that swing massively. I'm not really clued up on horse racing as a sport, but I'm getting there.
I always adjust my stake depending on price, but I also like to adjust my stake based on market volatility. I'll use smaller stakes on more volatile markets so I have more room for the market to move against me and not lose a huge amount if it doesn't look like it will return (risk reward). However, I get caught out sometimes with a big move thinking the market is a safer market.
How I work out my staking thus far is to predefine how much I'm willing to lose, then to judge how far the market could move against me momentarily before behaving how I predicted. so eg £10 risk over 5 ticks would be £2 a tick.
what methods/rules do you use to judge your stakes and market volatility?
As I'm writing this I'm starting to think more logically and almost answering my own question but my thinking is these factors play a role...
1) form.
are handicaps with a lower rating more volatile?
maidens that already have some races ran are less volatile than maidens running for the 1st time?
dose age play a role?
2) Volume
how much has been matched 10 mins- 5mins before the off?
how much liquidity in the book?
fill rate?
3)graph/range
how much has it moved previously?
what range has it traded in?
and what volume has traded in that range?
so to conclude, how do you judge the volatility of the race? are there different aspects of maidens and handicaps that make them more or less volatile?
thanks
I didn't find the right solution from the internet.
References:
www.betangel.com/forum/viewtopic.php?t=14885
Business Whiteboard Animation Video